Captain Starlet wrote: If there's support for extending it's only delaying the inevitable. I'm not sure what they're going to offer in way of terms for extending A50. The vote yesterday is now rendered useless and we've got nothing to bargain with. A second referendum was the best option to request an extension due to any deal being dead in the water. The option is, I suppose, that the 27 could impose terms on an extension in that they'll insist on a second referendum?
They could not (and would not even if they could) legally demand a second vote. They can certainly place conditions on any extension (and will) but demanding a specific internal UK course of action to resolve this is outside their remit. It would be imposing a constitutional demand, which they cannot do.
And as I say; nor *would* they even if they could. All 27 governments must agree unanimously to the terms of the extension and countries like Hungary, Italy and Poland, who are currently in dispute with the EU, would never set a legal precedent that could later be used against them.
Let's be honest; none of us know what's going to happen later today in brexit... let alone in two weeks. But based on what I've read, the EU is likely to agree to an extension under two circumstances:
1) If it has a firm -- and likely quite lengthy -- minimum time limit. Some are speaking of two years. Others want it to be at the end of the next EU parliamentary term.
2) If the UK proposes a specific solution (i.e. if THEY suggest a second referendum, or a general election). Then the EU might grant a shorter extension to implement that.
The problem with (1) is that Theresa May doesn't want anything to do with it. Staying that long means running candidates in the EU elections without having Brexit resolved. A lot of people suspect that would be the final nail in the tory coffin, and having threatened it for 3 years, the party would finally split down the middle.
And (2) rests on the UK realising that it's up to them to resolve this now. They are getting no more from the EU than the Withdrawal Agreement and I'm still not sure this has sunk in with the tories. In order for this to work, they need to offer concrete concessions and a plan forward.
But instead they're demanding concessions from the other side and assuming that someone - anyone - else will develop and implement a plan on their behalf.
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EDIT / ADDENDUM: As an aside, I suspect it will be Option (1) by default... it's not like Theresa May has got her desired outcome too often in the last few weeks, so her opposition to it isn't sufficient to prevent it IMO.
If I had to guess; I think we're at the point where May will be offered a two-year, take it or leave it, extension by the EU.
She will hold another Commons vote -- Her original deal Vs a 2 year extension. This will scare a LOT of the rebels and the ERG onside -- they'd rather get out now and hope to torpedo the backstop later, than risk staying in for another 2 years and losing brexit altogether.
But I think she's still lose the vote, because the DUP won't fall in line and not ALL the tory rebels will come home.
The UK will enter a 2 year period of "associate membership" -- i.e. they will have full responsibilities but less input into decision-making (I suspect they will lose their veto on legislation for example; on the assumption that they will not be bound by it once the extension is complete).
In the meantime a general election will be held and at some point over the next couple of years, brexit will be cancelled entirely. The UK will gain full membership status; will likely retain opt-outs on the single currency and Schengen, but will lose the financial rebate and other special deals. It will also have lost a HUGE amount of internal influence within the EU that could take a decade or more to regain.
*puts down crystal ball*
Reply | with quote | Posted by grufty jim 15th March 2019ce 09:02 |
Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 04, 2018, 13:49)- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (tjj, May 05, 2018, 09:48)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Rhiannon, May 10, 2018, 22:24)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, May 17, 2018, 20:03)
- Ha! (nigelswift, May 31, 2018, 15:29)
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- Re: Ha! (nigelswift, Jun 02, 2018, 18:49)
- Re: Ha! (Howburn Digger, Jun 14, 2018, 00:26)
- Another no-account lying remoaner? (nigelswift, Jun 13, 2018, 08:58)
- Dammit (nigelswift, Jun 16, 2018, 09:00)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Jul 17, 2018, 08:31)
- more dodgy voting (Rhiannon, Jul 19, 2018, 13:48)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 20, 2018, 08:34)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 21, 2018, 07:19)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 22, 2018, 11:49)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 22, 2018, 18:54)
- All we need now is another million like him (nigelswift, Jul 24, 2018, 10:21)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 25, 2018, 09:50)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 26, 2018, 12:10)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Jul 26, 2018, 12:32)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Jul 31, 2018, 07:37)
- Will of the people? (nigelswift, Aug 10, 2018, 11:25)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Aug 14, 2018, 08:31)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (goffik, Aug 15, 2018, 11:46)
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- Tory bastards (nigelswift, Aug 22, 2018, 13:21)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Aug 26, 2018, 11:42)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Aug 30, 2018, 14:05)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 01, 2018, 10:04)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 03, 2018, 17:32)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 09, 2018, 22:13)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 12, 2018, 13:07)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 17, 2018, 10:34)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 17, 2018, 12:19)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 21, 2018, 08:54)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 21, 2018, 11:48)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (goffik, Sep 24, 2018, 16:53)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 28, 2018, 11:07)
- Boris plays the race card (nigelswift, Oct 01, 2018, 10:32)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (grufty jim, Oct 10, 2018, 11:49)
- No words (nigelswift, Oct 14, 2018, 16:51)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (jb lamptoast-morsley, Oct 14, 2018, 19:12)
- Also (goffik, Oct 15, 2018, 10:54)
- So it'll be No Deal then? (nigelswift, Oct 16, 2018, 08:41)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Oct 21, 2018, 13:10)
- Crooks (nigelswift, Oct 26, 2018, 15:53)
- How can Corbyn not react? (nigelswift, Nov 03, 2018, 09:31)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Nov 08, 2018, 14:24)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Nov 14, 2018, 07:31)
- U-Know as a free space. (nigelswift, Nov 18, 2018, 09:57)
- Too subtle ! (nigelswift, Nov 21, 2018, 06:58)
- And end to Freedom of Movement (grufty jim, Nov 21, 2018, 09:53)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (thesweetcheat, Nov 23, 2018, 17:59)
- What fresh Hell is this? (thesweetcheat, Nov 26, 2018, 19:38)
- This is just wicked (nigelswift, Nov 28, 2018, 10:48)
- And another thing.... (nigelswift, Nov 30, 2018, 09:11)
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- Question: (nigelswift, Dec 02, 2018, 09:47)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (grufty jim, Dec 04, 2018, 18:29)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (thesweetcheat, Dec 04, 2018, 18:50)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (grufty jim, Dec 04, 2018, 18:56)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (PMM, Dec 06, 2018, 02:43)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Dec 04, 2018, 18:53)
- May's latest big fib (nigelswift, Dec 06, 2018, 09:40)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (thesweetcheat, Dec 10, 2018, 20:55)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Dec 12, 2018, 14:54)
- Liam Fox breaks the preposterous barrier (nigelswift, Dec 14, 2018, 08:36)
- Hahaha! (nigelswift, Dec 15, 2018, 08:18)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Dec 22, 2018, 09:57)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (wychburyman, Jan 27, 2019, 09:22)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (thesweetcheat, Feb 02, 2019, 17:53)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Feb 18, 2019, 09:07)
- Brexit from Ireland - a thought experiment (grufty jim, Feb 20, 2019, 18:52)
- Annoying for Kippers. (nigelswift, Feb 28, 2019, 13:34)
- Fair warning from US Ambassador (nigelswift, Mar 02, 2019, 12:07)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Mar 05, 2019, 09:11)
- National humiliation in the national interest?! (nigelswift, Mar 09, 2019, 16:04)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Mar 10, 2019, 15:10)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Mar 11, 2019, 08:28)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (PMM, Mar 12, 2019, 21:10)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Mar 12, 2019, 21:16)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, Mar 14, 2019, 18:43)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Mar 16, 2019, 12:17)
- Craig Murray (spencer, Mar 16, 2019, 14:27)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Mar 21, 2019, 08:39)
- Almost lost unless.... (nigelswift, Mar 27, 2019, 18:07)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Apr 02, 2019, 08:41)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 09, 2019, 13:34)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 13, 2019, 18:31)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 16, 2019, 17:23)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 21, 2019, 20:22)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, May 22, 2019, 11:18)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, May 22, 2019, 19:28)
- Led by Liars. (nigelswift, May 23, 2019, 10:52)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (Captain Starlet, May 24, 2019, 11:19)
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- Alastair Campbell expelled for pro Euro vote (nigelswift, May 28, 2019, 12:41)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, May 30, 2019, 15:04)
- As rare as hens teeth (nigelswift, Jun 02, 2019, 09:28)
- So it's to end up exactly as expected (nigelswift, Jun 26, 2019, 08:32)
- There's something wrong (nigelswift, Jul 04, 2019, 08:51)
- Hahaha! (nigelswift, Aug 02, 2019, 07:18)
- Prescriptions (nigelswift, Aug 22, 2019, 10:49)
- "The Queen's most excellent majesty in Council" .. (nigelswift, Aug 28, 2019, 15:06)
- Tom Watson: (nigelswift, Aug 29, 2019, 11:49)
- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Sep 01, 2019, 09:22)
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- Re: Jesus I despise Brexit. (nigelswift, Oct 04, 2019, 09:41)
- More evidence Brexit was won by .... (nigelswift, Oct 15, 2019, 07:09)
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