Jesus I despise Brexit.

close
more_vert
veneta1 V
veneta1 May 28, 2019 11:09:59
Replying to grufty jim

grufty jim wrote:
nigelswift wrote:
Exactly, Remain parties clearly won (boo to them for not having a common standard) yet the Beebs lead headline is "Clear win for Brexit Party".

Some talk of Labour shifting now though ....

I'm about as anti-brexit as it gets, but I've seen this "Remain (parties) won" thing on social media today and it's just not true.

Based on this BBC-sourced chart that was going round on twitter under the "REMAIN WON!!!" banner...

Clearly anti-brexit parties (Green, Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP, Change UK) got 40.4%

The Brexit Party got 34.9%

The tories (who are clearly a pro-brexit party) got 9.1%.


That means it was 44% Vs 40.4% in favour of Brexit.

And you simply cannot assume Labour's 14.1% was an anti-brexit vote (much as I wish we could). There's just no way of knowing how many of those Labour voters would turn out for "remain" in another referendum. I don't think Labour's equivocation is doing anyone any good at all, but that's where they are, and counting a Labour vote as a Remain vote isn't justifiable right now (IMO).

I'm sorry but I just don't agree with your analysis (and we're very obviously on the same side here). I live in a post industrial northern town that would be classed as mainly white working class and which voted, by a large majority, to leave in the 2016 referendum. Last Wednesday I attended my local Labour Party meeting and I was interested to see how the numbers for Leave and Remain would stack up when the subject of Brexit came up. I figured there'd be some passionate and intense debate on the subject. What transpired was that everyone in attendance, and there were between 40 and 50 people there, were strongly for Remain. And I mean everyone.

So, erring on the side of caution, let's divide the Labour vote in half and if you do that then Remain clearly won, 47.4% to 44% in favour of Remain. However, I would hazard a guess that Leave voting Labour voters will have been seduced by Farage and the Brexit Party and that those voting for Labour were mainly Remainers who voted out of loyalty to a party that, in all other respects apart from Brexit, reflects their political views.

Just my 2 penneth on the matter.

G grufty jim
grufty jim May 28, 2019 12:38:34
Replying to veneta1

You may well be 100% correct. I was just pointing out that interpreting the EU election results as "Remain Won" involves a huge amount of assumption.

For the avoidance of doubt; I was not suggesting "Remain Lost" or anything of the sort; just that those results don't provide nearly enough information to make _either_ claim.

Obviously (as someone at the actual meetings) you would have a much better feel for sentiment in northern Labour constituencies than I would. But what I'm reading and hearing (based on articles and vox-pop interviews carried out by the Irish media - which is most certainly not pro-Brexit) from places as wide apart as Holyhead and Sunderland is not very hopeful.