I've been surprised at how poorly Labour are showing in the polls. And this is despite the fact I think they've done a bloody terrible job in opposition over the past two years. I just thought they'd have better numbers by default... given how disastrous the tories have been lately. It's odd.

Even so... I do think Labour would win comfortably if there was another election. Given how disastrous the entire Brexit thing has been, and given that the tories would be campaigning while fighting a bitter civil war, I think Corbyn *would* get a comfortable majority despite himself, should there be a GE.

"gets rid of:
(a) likelihood of no-deal (because MPs won't vote for it) and
(b) excuses that we have to leave because the EU won't "let us" change our mind now"

And for that reason she's switched from "my way or hard Brexit" to "my way or Remain" which is exactly what a second Ref ought to be asking. I think the hard men are going to have to find something pretty special.

Who are they for? Originally, as I understand things, they were created as a workers and trades union movement, but were always a broad church. That breadth created internal tensions and power struggles over ideology. It has always drawn its following from a mix of the politicised working class and the progressive middle class. These groups have different agendas, and much of the vote for Brexit came from working class areas, to the continued bafflement and bemusement of many, while most of the push towards remain tended to come from the more cosmopolitan urban centres.

I suspect without the freak dynamic that led to Corbyn becoming leader, the Labour Party would have quickly aligned itself firmly in the Remain camp, partly because of political opportunism, but mainly because that's where it was and who it was for. The working class, the strongholds would vote for them anyway.

Yet Corbyn did become leader, and the forces that pushed him into that position have also been at work at every level of the Labour Party's organisational structure. Those forces have to be recognised. With a currently engaged grass roots pushing for deselections and changes to the political balance of the Labour Party's core structures, some of the changes being wrought will last for a good few years, although I think the wave of Corbyn-Mania has probably crested.

If the Labour Party has moved towards the working class, and the working class wants Brexit, it has a mandate, no matter how ill judged that mandate may be.

The question is of course, Why did so many of the hoi polloi vote for it in the first place? I'm not entirely convinced that half the country are gullible or racist or both.