Re: Stop Nick Griffin | Forum — The Modern Antiquarian

charlbury wrote:

The trouble with European elections is that - because people are more likely to vote for fringe parties - opinion polls are more meaningless than they are in other elections.

In the South East (the region I live in) it is very likely that of the 10 seats there will be at least 4 Tories, 2 Lib Dems, 1 Labour, 1 Green and 1 UKIP. It could boil down to a race between the 5th Tory, 2nd UKIP and BNP.

In London the Lib Dems were a handful of votes away from a second MEP last time, with no chance at all of the Greens getting a second. In the South-West again a second Lib Dem was much more likely than a Green. In the North West last time it was a second Lib Dem who got the last seat, just pipping the BNP.

So basically swinging 3 per cent of the vote *does* make a considerable amount of odds, and it does matter who that vote swings to. In the four regions above, at least, there is little or no point voting Green 'to keep the BNP out'.

I suspect you are right about London and the south-east - tho saying 'dont vote green to stop the nazis' COULD accidentally lead to a situation where the greens didnt even get enough votes for that first seat. And then there is the question of building up votes for next time as well.It has to be done unless one is to leave the same old bunch in charge.

Dunno about the south-west, but in the north-west (and yorkshire where a very similar tale could be told) you are wrong. Tne BNP are ni the stronger position, and the greens playng catch up - both with them and he lib-dems - but they were not far behind, and it is perfectly plausible that they will make up the necessary ground. there's no Respect this time, which might only be worth 1% or so, but that aint to be sniffed at.