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A statistical question: what are the chances of a broken (votive?) bronze age axe turning up at the base (indeed, in the "moat") of a mound that isn't Bronze Age?

Rare - its out of context for a start, more like disturbance at a later date, roman intrusion, so you still come back to where you started. Its that juxtaposition of it being at the bottom of a hill next to marshy and presumably boggy ground that doe'snt strike right, only excavation is going to tell. Silbury is a one-off like Stonehenge, a single vision at a particular time....

the axe appears to have been washed around the base of the mound, probably being depositied in the spring first.
The Roman rd is under the A4 from Silbury to West Kennet village.
it looks like they actualy added to the mound rather than cut into it.
PeteG

Rare - its out of context for a start
Or In Context if you're a believer!

"Silbury is a one-off"
or Not if you're a believer!

As you say, only excavation will settle it.
And even then, it'll need publication, as SL says.

Incidentally I don't see how "being at the bottom of a hill next to marshy and presumably boggy ground" but clearly built straight off the solid chalk spur of Waden makes it significantly different from Silbury.

People tend to forget the Hatfield Mound, the huge Silbury like hill that once stood inside Marden henge.
Silbury is only unique now that all the other large mounds have gone.
Over the summer I was made aware of another Silbury type mound that is covered in tree's so not visible from the air. This one is near Stonehenge!
PeteG