Neolithic boats

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>I find the leafy branch theory little unsatisfying

Yeah, doesn't quite ring true. Especially not if you're working on the theory of least effort. Hoisting bushes in the air would be quite tiring, especially in a stiff breeze.

What would have been a precursor to sails and masts?

Sails could have come before masts I suppose, especially in vessels with flexible frames rather than wooden keels, but what would they have been attached to? Could you just hold a small sail and get a decent degree of propulsion? Probably not.

Maybe, if you didn't have a good enough supply of textiles lying about to invest in large quantities of sailcloth, you could use kites made of animal skins.

Or maybe two people, each holding aloft a paddle, with a 'sail' of skins attached to the top of each paddle?

Who knows? Not I. And I can't think of any ethnographic comparisons. But it's fun to speculate.

Yes I agree that the leafy branch idea seems weak, but if you read the text on the page that I copied, he writes that it was common practice in Finland when he was a boy.

Evidence of early sail? Landstrom illustrates pre-dynastic reed or papyrus boats from Egypt They were propelled by paddles but some had a tiny fabric or leather sail hoisted on short poles. By 3000 BC, they had much more substantial boats with a large sail supported by a bipod mast. Ships of the Mediterranean were well into very early sail, but the earliest evidence of sail in northern Europe (apart from Roman of course) comes from 8th century Gotland picture stones. Big gap there!